Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.051544 0.058524 0.066324 0.075727 0.086811 0.099526 0.115313
2026-01-25 0.040958 0.049577 0.060002 0.073682 0.091370 0.113760 0.144717
2026-02-01 0.032776 0.041827 0.053525 0.070039 0.093221 0.125337 0.174545
2026-02-08 0.027923 0.037427 0.050503 0.070312 0.100483 0.146335 0.224696
2026-02-15 0.024091 0.033763 0.047856 0.070671 0.108277 0.170957 0.290934
2026-02-22 0.021232 0.031020 0.046077 0.072069 0.118405 0.203295 0.386681
2026-03-01 0.018807 0.028537 0.044274 0.073132 0.128625 0.240346 0.514079
2026-03-08 0.016393 0.025695 0.041401 0.071781 0.134334 0.271826 0.652538
2026-03-15 0.013904 0.022358 0.037131 0.066965 0.131964 0.285882 0.760674
2026-03-22 0.012547 0.020768 0.035709 0.067432 0.141325 0.332912 1.010717
2026-03-29 0.011567 0.019705 0.035086 0.069454 0.155297 0.400677 1.414354
2026-04-05 0.010552 0.018429 0.033840 0.069874 0.165777 0.466214 1.912993
2026-04-12 0.009630 0.017228 0.032594 0.070170 0.176769 0.543976 2.635358
2026-04-19 0.008669 0.015822 0.030695 0.068473 0.181727 0.606313 3.438198
2026-04-26 0.007729 0.014338 0.028401 0.065269 0.181099 0.648555 4.251755
2026-05-03 0.007156 0.013542 0.027518 0.065626 0.192651 0.756757 6.061473
2026-05-10 0.006653 0.012830 0.026717 0.066044 0.205006 0.885190 8.827605
2026-05-17 0.006259 0.012302 0.026268 0.067407 0.222007 1.063663 13.752714
2026-05-24 0.005888 0.011779 0.025747 0.068449 0.238725 1.269335 21.771924
2026-05-31 0.005450 0.011053 0.024604 0.067253 0.245567 1.423304 31.457109
2026-06-07 0.004917 0.010053 0.022616 0.062841 0.235824 1.440721 37.540087
2026-06-14 0.004644 0.009634 0.022102 0.063304 0.250110 1.691401 62.024944
2026-06-21 0.004451 0.009382 0.021998 0.065203 0.273324 2.086666 120.787182